Thompson William R.: American Global Pre-Eminence

A unique analysis that assesses how we can determine which country will be the next world leader. Will China surpass the United States as the world's leader? In American Global Pre-eminence, William R. Thompson argues that the answer depends on leads in technological innovation, energy, and global reach. These are the forces that influence the hierarchy of global power--a system which began emerging a thousand years ago and started becoming more evident after the 1490s, especially after Dutch activities in the seventeenth century and British operations in the nineteenth century. The US followed in this fashion after 1945. Yet leads do not last forever. Ironically, as it becomes clearer how technological innovation, military force, and energy power interact, the processes under scrutiny may themselves be fundamentally transforming. Thus, Thompson contends, the real policy question is not whether the US is ahead or behind China but, rather, whether it will remain possible for a single state to lead the global system. As technological innovation, energy consumption, and global reach capability grow less concentrated, the prospects for systemic leadership shrink--even as global problems become more complex and acute. With a sweeping analysis of global power, Thompson provides a foundation for understanding the realities and possibilities of lead states past, present, and future.Thompson has been one of the major scholars contributing to our understanding of international politics. At a time when scholars are focused on the rise of China and the alleged decline of the US, his most recent work in this area could not be more timely. And unlike most approaches to the rise and decline of powers today, this one is correctly placed in the context of long-term dynamics that help explain where we are now and where we are heading. Combining rigorous theory with new data on military and economic capabilities, along with a strong historical perspective, this excellent contribution to the field of international relations should be on the desks of both scholars and students in the field." -Thomas J. Volgy, The University of Arizona